اشترك في: الاثنين ديسمبر 20, 2004 11:42 am
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Artificial Intelligence, Androids and Robots:
Do They Threaten Human Civilization?
© 2015 by Linda Moulton Howe
“We should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I had to guess
at what our biggest existential threat is to humanity, it's probably that.”
- Elon Musk, Head of Tesla and SpaceX, supported by
Microsoft's Bill Gates and U. K. Astrophysicist Stephen Hawking
“I think it is quite likely that within a few centuries the overriding
intelligence (beyond humans) will be machines because ... they are not
organic and most exploration will be by machines and not humans.
...So if we find aliens in space, they will be machines.”
- Martin Rees, Ph.D., Astronomer Royal and Emeritus Professor of
Cosmology and Astrophysics, University of Cambridge, England
June 26, 2015 Cambridge, England - On June 1, 2011, Martin J. Rees, Ph.D., Astronomer Royal and Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics from the University of Cambridge, was in London's Buckingham Palace before Prince Phillip. He was there to receive the prestigious 2011 Templeton Prize for his “profound insights on the cosmos that have provoked vital questions that speak to humanity's highest hopes and worst fears.” The Templeton Prize began in 1973 when it honored Mother Teresa before she received the Nobel Peace Prize. Others receiving the honor have been the Dalai Lama and mathematician George Ellis from South Africa, who thinks Einstein was wrong that time is an “illusion” and describes his own theory in the following Earthfiles report.
June 1, 2011, Buckingham Palace – Martin J. Rees, Ph.D., Royal Astronomer
and theoretical astrophysicist, is formally presented with the 2011 Templeton Prize
by His Royal Highness Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh, at a private ceremony at
Buckingham Palace to honor Prof. Rees for his "profound insights on the cosmos that
have provoked vital questions that speak to humanity's highest hopes
and worst fears." Photo by Clifford Shirley.
Martin Rees was born in 1942 in York, England, and was drawn to astrophysics in the 1960s as breakthrough news kept erupting about the discovery of neutron stars, black holes and the beginning Big Bang of this universe. Prof. Rees was awarded his Ph.D. in theoretical astronomy from Cambridge University in 1967, where he remained over the decades to teach astronomy, experimental philosophy and to write brilliant books, including his 2003 American edition Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning that argued this 21st Century has no more than a 50/50 chance of surviving until 2100 without experiencing a population-reducing catastrophe.
He followed up that warning with another during his presentation at the Cheltenham Science Festival three weeks ago. He had heard that Elon Musk, head of Tesla and SpaceX, had said in a recent TV interview, “We humans should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I had to guess at what our biggest existential threat is to humanity, it's probably that.” Joining Musk with similar warnings have been Microsoft's Bill Gates and U. K. Astrophysicist Stephen Hawking.
So during his Cheltenham talk entitled “Mars to the Multiverse,” Prof. Rees countered with, “I think it is quite likely that within a few centuries the overriding intelligence (beyond humans) will be machines because ... they are not organic and most exploration will be by machines and not humans. ...So if we find aliens in space, they will be machines.”
The Telegraph, June 6, 2015, covering the Cheltenham Science Festival and presentation
"Mars to the Multiverse" by Astronomer Royal and Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics from the University of Cambridge, England, Martin J. Rees, Ph.D.
Interview:
Martin Rees, 73, Ph.D., Astronomer Royal and Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics, University of Cambridge, Trinity College, Cambridge, England: “If you have a robot that is able to identify a person by facial recognition techniques and decides to kill them, then the question is: Who has the ethical responsibility for that?
You asked also about when we will have robots that are fully equivalent to human intelligence. How long-term it is, is a matter of dispute among the experts. If you do an opinion sample, then you find that the length of time we will have to wait before we have a fully human level intelligence in a computer is in some peoples’ minds 25 years away; in some peoples’ minds it will never happen.
There could be an intelligence explosion. Machines think hugely faster that the human brain because the signals in them go at the speed of light rather than neuronal transmissions in our brains. So, there will be an explosion of intelligence and indeed, the machine of human intelligence is the last that humans will ever make because once it exists, then it will be better able to design the next improvements. So, this is when machines will take over.
IF WE FIND ALIEN INTELLIGENCE IN THE UNIVERSE AS WE ARE BEGINNING TO EXPLORE THE SOLAR SYSTEM AND GO BEYOND, YOUR CONCLUSION IS THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MACHINES. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON THAT?
Yes. I should say that I’m an astronomer and I’m interested in the very exciting developments, which have led to the realization that there are billions of planets, rather like the Earth in our Milky Way galaxy. We don’t know which have life on them, but many may have. But as to what that life is like, we have no idea. We have no idea how life started on the Earth. We don't know how simple life evolves into a complex biosphere on Earth.
We can say something about what might happen in the future. We know we have emerged and become a technological civilization in the last two centuries with a surge just in the last century. And we can also predict that within a century, the most intelligent entities may not be organic at all, but may be machines.
Natural Cosmic Evolution —
Organic to Machine Intelligence?
So in a cosmological time scale of billions of years, then the period on Earth when there was intelligence of an organic kind would be a very brief interlude between the period when there was no intelligent life at all and the period when machines had taken over. And so we have a sliver of time in which we are living when the dominant human brains were superseded (replaced) by a period that could extend for billions of years when the machines will dominate.
That therefore means that if the life on the other planets has evolved in any way similar to what's happened on the Earth, then we are most unlikely to catch it at the intermediate brief stage when the intelligence is organic. Far more likely would it be that the intelligence which we might detect beyond the Earth will be in some machine form. That machine form, of course, once developed would not be constrained to an Earth-like planet, although an Earth-like planet is essential for life like ours. It's not the best place for a really advanced intelligence. A machine may do far better under zero gravity away from the planet (Earth).
So, my speculation would be that most of the thinking in the universe is not done by human-like organisms, but by machines which may be in interstellar space and not between planets at all.
I HAVE INTERVIEWED QUANTUM PHYSICIST MICHIO KAKU ABOUT HIS PERCEPTION THAT WE'RE IN A 13.9 BILLION LIGHT-YEAR OLD UNIVERSE. THAT GIVES ENOUGH TIME FOR THERE TO BE THREE OR FOUR ERAS OF ADVANCED ORGANIC CIVILIZATIONS AND INTELLIGENCES BY NOW. OUR OWN MILKY WAY GALAXY WOULD BE IN A YOUNGER PART OF THIS UNIVERSE. SO, ADVANCED ORGANIC INTELLIGENCE WOULD BE BEHIND ALL AND ANY MACHINES WE ENCOUNTERED. IT WOULD THEN LEAVE THE QUESTION: WHERE IS THE PRIME ORGANIC INTELLIGENCE THAT MADE THE MACHINES?
I think we need to be open minded about whether life forms could exist of very different kinds. Some we are familiar with here on Earth. We just don't know, but I think we should bear in mind that the time line ahead in the evolution of our galaxy and the universe is far, far longer than the time that's elapsed up to now. So, we should not think of ourselves as being anywhere near the culmination of evolution. We may be nearer the beginning than the end. Post-human evolution here on Earth and far beyond is going to be dominated by inorganic materials.
IN YOUR THOUGHTS ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE ARE SENDING PEOPLE NOW TO MARS PERHAPS THIS CENTURY TO SET UP A COLONY. ELON MUSK WANTS TO DO THAT FOR CERTAIN.YOU RAISED A VERY INTERESTING ISSUE AND THAT IS: HUMANS THAT WOULD GO TO MARS OR TO ANY OTHER SOLAR SYSTEM BODY IN THIS SOLAR SYSTEM, THEIR GENETICS WOULD ULTIMATELY CHANGE IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE ENVIRONMENTS THAT THEY WERE SURVIVING IN.
COULD YOU PLEASE EXPLAIN WHAT YOU MEAN BY THE POST-HUMAN ERA AS WE WOULD BE TRYING TO EXPLORE OUR OWN SOLAR SYSTEM AND CHANGING EVEN THOSE HUMANS?
Yes, indeed. I certainly hope that some people now living will walk on Mars and Elon Musk says that he hopes to die on Mars, but not on impact.
(laughs) RIGHT!
He's 43 years old now, so he may achieve this. But my personal view is that the future of people in space is simply as adventurers and explorers because all the practical uses of space for communications can be done far better by machines. I think we will have large robots fabricating huge structures in space.
Post-Human Evolution
to Cyborgs and Androids
Humans are adapted to live on the Earth. They are very badly adapted to live out in space and by the end of the century, we'll have the genetic techniques and cyborg techniques to modify descendants and graft computers on to them so as to make different human beings. And that will be the start of post-human evolution because these characters out there (androids) will end up being very different from humans in their mentality and in their physique because they'll have to adapt to a different environment.
That will be the start of a process of post-human evolution away from the Earth and that will lead to interstellar travel that is daunting if you are merely a mortal rather limited to a human lifespan. And so all this will happen leading to a tremendous diversity of post-human creatures and they are billions of years ahead. So, post-human evolution will be far more varied than the evolution has happened up to now and dominated first by cyborgs — interfaces between humans and machines — but eventually the machines will take over.”
[ Editor's Note: In science fiction, an android is human in form made to look and act like a human, but is not a living creature. An android can be repaired and re-activated like any machine.
But a cyborg is a living organic being that has machine parts to enhance or extend its capabilities that are embedded in its organism and cannot be easily removed or repaired. So the cyborg can die.]
Illustration of cyborg evolution as new, updated models would be produced for the challenges of space travel. Illustrations by Taringa.net.
Linda Moulton Howe: “DO YOU THINK THAT ANDROID IS A GOOD NAME FOR WHAT THE POST-HUMAN ERA WOULD BE, MEANING THAT WE WILL BE MOVING AT THE END OF THIS CENTURY INTO BIOLOGY AND MACHINE WITH CREATED ARTIFICIAL ORGANS AND PARTS TO SURVIVE — LET'S SAY ON MARS — AND THAT THE NEXT HUMAN GENERATION ARE ANDROIDS?
I think so. I think that's the way technology is developing. We don't know how fast it will happen, but I certainly think that the post-human evolution will be fastest when people are away from the Earth. They have the strongest motivation to change themselves from normal human form.
SO THIS GENERATION OF HOMO SAPIENS SAPIENS IN THE 21ST CENTURY COULD BE THE VERY LAST CENTURY OF CRO-MAGNON HOMO SAPIENS SAPIENS?
Yes, it could be. We may try to force constraints on post-human evolution. I suspect that humans here on the Earth are not going to change as rapidly as that. So I think human life on the Earth is not going to change quite so dramatically.
Another point I would like to emphasize is that people who go away from the Earth will be just a few adventurers. We can't solve the Earth's problems by immigration. We have to solve them here on the Earth. I suspect we will solve them rather more slowly.
But I think another thought I would like to advance is that if things go very badly this century here on Earth, then we will foreclose all these exciting post-human developments. One of the worries I have is that technology and nuclear weapons gives us the possibility of causing a catastrophe to civilization and these threats are growing. I think now a global catastrophe could be caused by a small group — biotech or cybertech.
So, I think the challenge is to insure that we get through this century. We'll have a bumpy ride, avoid catastrophe. And if we do that on the Earth — whether Earth is preserved as a sort of garden or theme park — we will have a future, probably changing more slowly than those who venture away from the Earth.”
https://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID= ... ry=Science
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